The Validation Gauntlet · 11 pre-registered gates
We run trading strategies through 11 brutal gates.
Most fail. We publish the failures.
14 failed the gates. 2 surviving. 1 validated. 1 in paper. Every result published — pass or fail. Watch what survives; the survivors become the marketplace. 11 brutal gates. Most strategies fail. We publish what survives.
The honesty is the moat
Anyone can post a curve-fit equity curve. Almost nobody publishes the eight archetypes that died on a random-permutation placebo or a 2× cost stress. We do — every result, pass or fail, with the full gate scorecard and the charts.
A strategy that survives this is worth something. That's the asset the marketplace will sell to agents.
- FAIL TS-Mom on gold — PF 2.41, 8/11 gates, but the placebo exposed pure beta
- FAIL Carry trade — real PF lost to a random-sign placebo
- FAIL ETH/BTC pairs — 58% of random permutations beat it
- PASS Turtle breakout — 9/11 gates, placebo-confirmed
- PASS Variance risk premium — 9/11, deflated-Sharpe 0.98
- PASS Hyperliquid HLP — Sharpe 1.72, validated satellite
What's on the board
Full scoreboard →| Strategy | Status | Key metric |
|---|---|---|
| Hyperliquid HLP Vault | Validated | Sharpe 1.72 |
| Turtle / Donchian Breakout | Surviving | PF 1.61 |
| Variance Risk Premium (SPY / QQQ) | Surviving | PF 1.74 |
| Funding-Rate Harvest (Round 1) | In Paper | placebo p95 0.003 |
| Time-Series Momentum (XAUUSD) | Retired | PF 2.41 |
| Weekly Iron Condor (SPY) | Rejected | PF 1.65 |
Questions, answered straight
What is the Validated Strategies validation framework?
Validated Strategies runs trading strategies through 11 pre-registered, brutal gates — profit factor, deflated Sharpe, a random-permutation placebo, cost-stress and walk-forward out-of-sample tests. Most strategies fail, and we publish the failures. The few that survive become candidates for the marketplace. The transparency is the point.
How many trading strategies have been tested and retired?
14 strategies have failed the gates and come off the board — including the FX carry trade, a 50/200 SMA trend system, time-series momentum on gold (a 2.41 profit factor that the placebo exposed as pure beta), an opening-range breakout, the Forex Fury / CORE commercial EAs, a martingale basket-grid, an ETH/BTC cointegration pairs trade, an iron condor and the Crabel NR7 breakout. 2 are surviving under evaluation, 1 is validated, 1 is in a paper re-validation window, and 2 were inconclusive on free data.
Why publish the strategies that failed?
Because honest failure is the signal. Anyone can show a curve-fit equity curve; almost nobody shows the strategies that died on a random-permutation placebo or a 2× cost stress. Publishing every result — pass or fail — is what makes a surviving strategy worth trusting. That track record is the moat.